Fri, Nov 18, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Rangers 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 03 | 113 | 111 | 227 |
| CBJ | 13 | 114 | 27 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:34CBJWilliam KarlssonUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 5:38CBJSam GagnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 11:04NYRMichael GrabnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 8:32NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Brady Skjei, Nick Holden · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 11:35CBJMatt CalvertSHGWGAssists: William Karlsson, Ryan Murray · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 19:59CBJBoone JennerENAssists: Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.62 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:50CBJJack Johnson: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:03NYRRick Nash: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:30NYROscar Lindberg: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:35CBJDavid Savard: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad2:32
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Hayes – Fast – Vesey8:47
xG 0.31–0.03 (90%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Vesey2:25
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Zibanejad – Miller8:50
xG 0.15–0.21 (42%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Klein – Skjei13:50
xG 0.39–0.37 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh16:33
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Staal – Holden15:35
xG 0.29–0.76 (28%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Saad – Wennberg13:07
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Calvert – Karlsson – Anderson7:13
xG 0.36–0.27 (58%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Gagner – Calvert – Karlsson2:16
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Gagner – Sedlak5:25
xG 0.02–0.18 (12%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrington – Nutivaara11:27
xG 0.44–0.18 (71%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Savard – Werenski18:32
xG 0.53–0.62 (46%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
- Johnson – Murray15:56
xG 0.62–0.99 (39%)attempts 14–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).