Sat, Nov 19, 2016·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Buffalo Sabres 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 018 | 09 | 116 | 04 | 0 | 147 |
| BUF | 16 | 010 | 011 | 06 | 1 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:16BUFWilliam CarrierAssists: Taylor Fedun · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 5:46PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Chris Kunitz, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.28 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. BUF Kyle Okposo stopped
- 2. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 3. BUF Sam Reinhart stopped
- 4. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
- 5. BUF Cal O'Reilly scored
- 6. PIT Kris Letang stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:46PITTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:26BUFSam Reinhart: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:16PITBrian Dumoulin: Holding2 min
- P2 9:25PITConor Sheary: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:28PITBrian Dumoulin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:37BUFCody Franson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 14:08BUFJake McCabe: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:08PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:08BUFBrian Gionta: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:08PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Kessel14:09
xG 0.69–0.18 (79%)attempts 22–9goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hagelin – Sheary13:15
xG 0.44–0.01 (97%)attempts 19–2goals 0–0
- Cullen – Rust – Wilson7:39
xG 0.35–0.11 (76%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Fehr – Bonino – Kuhnhackl5:27
xG 0.36–0.37 (49%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Schultz11:23
xG 0.70–0.10 (87%)attempts 19–3goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin16:19
xG 0.67–0.20 (77%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Daley – Maatta12:10
xG 0.67–0.52 (56%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Moulson – O'Reilly – Girgensons4:57
xG 0.01–0.11 (12%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson2:30
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Okposo – Kane – Larsson12:36
xG 0.05–0.38 (12%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
- Grant – Schneider – Carrier2:02
xG 0.09–0.44 (17%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Falk – Fedun8:42
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Gorges – Franson2:30
xG 0.00–0.30 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Franson – McCabe16:59
xG 0.54–1.08 (33%)attempts 14–25goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).