Sat, Nov 19, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 09 | 112 | 011 | 132 |
| MTL | 114 | 17 | 08 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:45MTLPaul ByronAssists: Shea Weber, Alexander Radulov · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 0:32MTLAlex GalchenyukPPGWGAssists: Alexander Radulov, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 8:47TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Leo Komarov, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:02TORNazem Kadri: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 10:18TORJake Gardiner: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:15MTLNathan Beaulieu: Interference2 min
- P2 0:27TORTyler Bozak: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:11MTLMax Pacioretty: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:52TORConnor Carrick: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:53MTLPhillip Danault: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:58TORMatt Martin: Boarding2 min
- P3 11:58TORMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:58MTLNathan Beaulieu: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:57MTLCharles Hudon: Interference2 min
- P3 0:00MTLAlexei Emelin: Cross checking5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner10:20
xG 0.30–0.33 (47%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Hyman – Brown – Matthews7:16
xG 0.06–0.10 (39%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Nylander6:43
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Martin – Smith – Soshnikov8:34
xG 0.44–0.53 (45%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Carrick13:36
xG 0.74–0.43 (63%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Zaitsev2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Rielly – Zaitsev14:04
xG 0.34–0.65 (34%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Gallagher – Danault3:23
xG 0.42–0.06 (88%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Radulov – Byron – Galchenyuk7:04
xG 0.55–0.22 (71%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Shaw9:29
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Hudon5:16
xG 0.04–0.05 (42%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Petry12:34
xG 0.42–0.15 (73%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Weber – Emelin14:43
xG 0.75–0.52 (59%)attempts 16–19goals 1–0
- Weber – Beaulieu2:19
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).