Sat, Nov 19, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
San Jose Sharks 2, Arizona Coyotes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 017 | 010 | 218 | 00 | 245 |
| ARI | 14 | 112 | 07 | 13 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:55ARITobias RiederAssists: Jordan Martinook · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 7:53ARIMax DomiPPAssists: Martin Hanzal, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 0:41SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Justin Braun, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 10:28SJSTommy WingelsAssists: Matt Nieto, David Schlemko · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 1:16ARIMartin HanzalGWGAssists: Alex Goligoski, Radim Vrbata · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:57ARIRyan White: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:57SJSMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:45SJSDavid Schlemko: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:39ARIAnthony Duclair: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:49SJSJoonas Donskoi: Interference2 min
- P2 0:54ARIAnthony Duclair: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:28SJSBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:18SJSJoe Thornton: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:20ARIJamie McGinn: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Marleau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWard – Couture – Donskoi11:31
xG 1.26–0.14 (90%)attempts 26–1goals 0–0
- Haley – Wingels – Tierney3:44
xG 0.25–0.08 (76%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Boedker – Nieto – Tierney2:36
xG 0.16–0.05 (76%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski5:33
xG 0.27–0.20 (57%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun14:00
xG 0.87–0.32 (73%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Burns – Schlemko9:09
xG 0.34–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Martin – Burns9:10
xG 0.60–0.40 (60%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- McGinn – Duclair – Dvorak8:12
xG 0.25–0.38 (40%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
- McGinn – White – Dauphin3:57
xG 0.02–0.30 (7%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Doan – Rieder – Martinook12:38
xG 0.36–0.67 (35%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Domi12:26
xG 0.38–0.82 (32%)attempts 6–19goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – DeAngelo12:59
xG 0.54–0.43 (55%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Murphy2:18
xG 0.17–0.12 (60%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy13:49
xG 0.39–0.53 (42%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).