Sat, Nov 19, 2016·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 07 | 04 | 317 | 14 | 432 |
| VAN | 110 | 29 | 03 | 05 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:49VANLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Sven Baertschi, Ben Hutton · Backhand, 0.28 xG0–1
- P2 17:03VANBo HorvatSHAssists: Alexandre Burrows · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 18:27VANBrandon SutterAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 2:53CHIArtemi PanarinAssists: Patrick Kane, Brian Campbell · Slap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 4:06CHIVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Michal Kempny · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 15:46CHIRyan HartmanAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 4:04CHIMarian HossaGWGAssists: Duncan Keith, Vinnie Hinostroza · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:35CHIMichal Rozsival: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:52CHIMarcus Kruger: Interference2 min
- P2 15:27VANMichael Chaput: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:47VANDaniel Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:52VANJayson Megna: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestPanik – Hinostroza – Hartman8:22
xG 0.51–0.04 (94%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Hossa – Anisimov – Panarin10:32
xG 0.48–0.23 (67%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Schmaltz13:32
xG 0.25–0.38 (40%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Kruger – Motte – Rasmussen7:21
xG 0.05–0.32 (14%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Kempny4:16
xG 0.44–0.13 (78%)attempts 10–2goals 1–1
- Keith – Seabrook6:49
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson15:26
xG 0.19–0.21 (49%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSkille – Gaunce – Megna5:50
xG 0.19–0.10 (67%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Sutter13:08
xG 0.23–0.28 (45%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Eriksson – Chaput – Granlund10:50
xG 0.25–0.41 (38%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Burrows – Baertschi – Horvat11:32
xG 0.39–0.57 (41%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Gudbranson – Hutton16:36
xG 0.56–0.55 (50%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Edler – Stecher18:24
xG 0.36–0.46 (44%)attempts 13–13goals 0–2
- Sbisa – Tryamkin11:34
xG 0.23–0.36 (39%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).