Mon, Nov 21, 2016·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Rangers 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 012 | 315 | 29 | 536 |
| PIT | 214 | 09 | 08 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:02PITJake GuentzelAssists: Phil Kessel, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 13:12PITJake GuentzelAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–2
- P2 4:51NYRRick NashUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 14:23NYRMichael GrabnerAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 19:11NYRJ.T. MillerSHGWGAssists: Kevin Hayes · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 12:46NYRKevin HayesAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Tip-in, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 18:37NYRDerek StepanENAssists: Rick Nash, Michael Grabner · Wrist, 0.50 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:15PITKris Letang: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 2:15NYRJosh Jooris: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:12PITEvgeni Malkin: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:12NYRDan Girardi: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:31NYRJesper Fast: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:56PITSidney Crosby: Interference2 min
- P2 18:49NYRBrady Skjei: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pirri won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zuccarello – Hayes12:44
xG 0.48–0.23 (68%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Nash – Grabner – Stepan9:45
xG 0.35–0.29 (54%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Lindberg – Fast – Jooris8:15
xG 0.09–0.26 (26%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Pirri – Miller – Vesey9:59
xG 0.42–0.62 (40%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh13:35
xG 0.99–0.18 (84%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Staal – Holden16:50
xG 0.32–0.73 (31%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Klein – Skjei14:21
xG 0.09–0.84 (10%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Hagelin – Sheary9:52
xG 0.53–0.22 (71%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Guentzel12:56
xG 0.92–0.65 (58%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
- Cullen – Fehr – Kuhnhackl3:52
xG 0.02–0.03 (38%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Bonino – Rust – Wilson5:28
xG 0.13–0.17 (44%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Schultz11:51
xG 0.99–0.42 (70%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Letang – Dumoulin14:08
xG 0.11–0.22 (34%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Daley – Maatta15:08
xG 0.49–0.66 (43%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).