Wed, Nov 23, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Pittsburgh Penguins 6, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 010 | 511 | 117 | 638 |
| NYR | 17 | 06 | 04 | 117 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:22NYRRick NashPPAssists: Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.42 xG0–1
- P2 2:02PITScott WilsonAssists: Phil Kessel, Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 4:58PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Ian Cole · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 10:12PITPhil KesselAssists: Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 12:57PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Kris Letang · Deflected, 0.05 xG4–1
- P2 16:42PITConor ShearyAssists: Sidney Crosby, Carl Hagelin · Snap, 0.05 xG5–1
- P3 13:05PITMatt CullenAssists: Justin Schultz, Eric Fehr · Tip-in, 0.13 xG6–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:17PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:10NYRMarc Staal: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:02NYRRyan McDonagh: Boarding5 min
- P1 13:02PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:54PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:53PITNick Bonino: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:48NYRChris Kreider: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Fehr – Kuhnhackl10:28
xG 0.52–0.10 (84%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Crosby – Hagelin – Sheary10:37
xG 0.72–0.38 (66%)attempts 14–8goals 3–0
- Bonino – Rust – Wilson8:04
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Guentzel11:15
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Maatta13:26
xG 0.78–0.30 (73%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Cole – Schultz13:16
xG 0.72–0.45 (61%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Daley – Dumoulin12:25
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zuccarello – Hayes5:43
xG 0.26–0.06 (82%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Miller – Jooris3:46
xG 0.06–0.07 (45%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Kreider – Lindberg – Fast4:51
xG 0.04–0.09 (31%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Lindberg – Fast – Jooris3:47
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Staal – Holden14:49
xG 0.32–0.48 (40%)attempts 8–14goals 0–2
- Klein – Skjei13:53
xG 0.48–0.71 (40%)attempts 12–16goals 0–2
- Girardi – McDonagh15:16
xG 0.33–0.81 (29%)attempts 10–22goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).