Fri, Nov 25, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Rangers 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 27 | 18 | 08 | 323 |
| PHI | 011 | 010 | 221 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:16NYRDerek StepanAssists: J.T. Miller · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 14:50NYRMatt PuempelAssists: Jimmy Vesey, Josh Jooris · Snap, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 12:33NYRKevin HayesGWGAssists: Nick Holden · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–0
- P3 1:34PHIChris VandeVeldeAssists: Andrew MacDonald · Deflected, 0.31 xG3–1
- P3 17:56PHIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:17PHIDale Weise: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 8:58NYRBrandon Pirri: Boarding2 min
- P1 8:58NYRBrandon Pirri: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:58PHITravis Konecny: Instigator2 min
- P1 8:58PHITravis Konecny: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:58PHITravis Konecny: Misconduct10 min
- P1 19:58PHIBrandon Manning: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:58NYRChris Kreider: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laughton won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestPuempel – Vesey – Jooris8:23
xG 0.25–0.12 (67%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Miller11:23
xG 0.61–0.68 (47%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Fast10:17
xG 0.16–0.39 (29%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Nash – Pirri – Zuccarello9:46
xG 0.17–0.57 (23%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Skjei14:36
xG 0.73–0.55 (57%)attempts 14–20goals 2–1
- Girardi – McDonagh17:07
xG 0.38–0.71 (35%)attempts 6–20goals 0–0
- Staal – Holden19:33
xG 0.50–1.15 (31%)attempts 12–27goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVandeVelde – Weise – Laughton7:25
xG 1.16–0.23 (83%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
- Read – Raffl – Bellemare5:17
xG 0.33–0.16 (68%)attempts 11–1goals 0–1
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl5:03
xG 0.13–0.04 (76%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Voracek – Weise – Laughton2:06
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Gostisbehere13:28
xG 0.89–0.37 (70%)attempts 23–8goals 1–1
- Streit – Provorov14:18
xG 0.95–0.48 (66%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
- Gudas – Provorov2:32
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).