Fri, Nov 25, 2016·Prudential Center, Newark
Detroit Red Wings 5, New Jersey Devils 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 212 | 110 | 18 | 13 | 533 |
| NJD | 15 | 210 | 14 | 00 | 419 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:01NJDJohn MooreAssists: Travis Zajac, Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 7:23DETFrans NielsenSHAssists: Justin Abdelkader · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P1 10:41DETFrans NielsenAssists: Riley Sheahan, Justin Abdelkader · Tip-in, 0.36 xG2–1
- P2 4:06NJDMichael CammalleriAssists: Travis Zajac · Snap, 0.24 xG2–2
- P2 5:56NJDPavel ZachaPPAssists: Beau Bennett, Michael Cammalleri · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 19:58DETDylan LarkinAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Henrik Zetterberg · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 0:43DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Snap, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 14:49NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Kyle Quincey, John Moore · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–4
- OT 3:18DETMike GreenGWGAssists: Frans Nielsen, Anthony Mantha · Snap, 0.06 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:28DETRiley Sheahan: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 16:07NJDMichael Cammalleri: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:26DETJonathan Ericsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 7:44DETLuke Glendening: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:51DETSteve Ott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:50NJDYohann Auvitu: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:42NJDKyle Palmieri: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sheahan won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Abdelkader – Glendening7:29
xG 0.65–0.27 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Ott – Sheahan – Bertuzzi4:10
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Tatar – Mantha10:41
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Sheahan2:14
xG 0.08–0.06 (57%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – DeKeyser17:08
xG 0.90–0.47 (66%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Ericsson – Green2:08
xG 0.46–0.04 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Smith9:34
xG 0.53–0.16 (76%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Zajac – Palmieri9:49
xG 0.52–0.41 (56%)attempts 6–10goals 2–1
- Josefson – Bennett – Zacha3:53
xG 0.05–0.04 (56%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Zajac – Lappin2:59
xG 0.05–0.05 (47%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Henrique – Lappin4:34
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Severson9:35
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Greene – Lovejoy5:20
xG 0.14–0.03 (82%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Quincey – Lovejoy2:07
xG 0.02–0.00 (82%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).