Fri, Nov 25, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Edmonton Oilers 2, Arizona Coyotes 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 212 | 010 | 09 | 03 | 1 | 234 |
| ARI | 122 | 07 | 112 | 00 | 2 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:31EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 17:29EDMAdam LarssonAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 17:38ARIMax DomiAssists: Radim Vrbata, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 8:06ARIShane DoanAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Tobias Rieder · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. ARI Anthony Duclair stopped
- 2. EDM Mark Letestu scored
- 3. ARI Radim Vrbata scored
- 4. EDM Connor McDavid stopped
- 5. ARI Oliver Ekman-Larsson scored
- 6. EDM Jordan Eberle stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:36EDMPatrick Maroon: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:17EDMCam Talbot: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:39ARIConnor Murphy: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:50EDMMatt Benning: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:33ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min
- OT 1:38ARITony DeAngelo: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Martinook
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – McDavid – Puljujarvi11:37
xG 0.76–0.36 (68%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Maroon – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins11:01
xG 0.55–0.21 (72%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Letestu – Kassian – Pitlick9:17
xG 0.17–0.31 (36%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Draisaitl – Caggiula10:06
xG 0.33–0.55 (37%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom15:49
xG 0.83–0.52 (61%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- Benning – Nurse15:08
xG 0.54–0.77 (41%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Sekera – Russell15:10
xG 0.47–0.72 (40%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Rieder – Martinook11:07
xG 0.52–0.22 (70%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- White – Dauphin – Crouse6:48
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- McGinn – Duclair – Dvorak10:05
xG 0.49–0.43 (53%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Domi12:45
xG 0.27–0.47 (36%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Murphy13:12
xG 0.85–0.33 (72%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
- Schenn – Stone9:39
xG 0.73–0.32 (69%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Stone6:16
xG 0.02–0.33 (5%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).