Sun, Nov 27, 2016·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Arizona Coyotes 2, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 16 | 010 | 17 | 223 |
| EDM | 013 | 013 | 116 | 142 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:10ARIRadim VrbataAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–0
- P3 10:39EDMMilan LucicAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 16:16ARIJamie McGinnGWGAssists: Anthony Duclair, Christian Dvorak · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:59ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min
- P1 13:36ARIShane Doan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:57EDMAdam Larsson: Elbowing2 min
- P2 7:38ARIMartin Hanzal: Holding2 min
- P2 7:38EDMKris Russell: Holding2 min
- P2 14:47EDMAdam Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:29ARILaurent Dauphin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Domi11:31
xG 0.36–0.48 (42%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- McGinn – Duclair – Dvorak9:04
xG 0.24–0.41 (37%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
- White – Dauphin – Crouse7:21
xG 0.07–0.34 (17%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Doan – Rieder – Martinook11:52
xG 0.22–0.52 (30%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy17:39
xG 0.40–0.45 (47%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Schenn – Stone9:42
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Goligoski – DeAngelo14:20
xG 0.19–0.70 (22%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Puljujarvi – Caggiula3:26
xG 0.44–0.04 (92%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Maroon – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins9:22
xG 0.53–0.34 (61%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Lucic – Draisaitl – McDavid6:43
xG 0.22–0.06 (77%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Draisaitl – Caggiula5:27
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Russell15:15
xG 0.87–0.33 (72%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Benning – Nurse12:56
xG 0.41–0.22 (66%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Russell – Nurse2:18
xG 0.11–0.04 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).