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Ice Lab

Tue, Nov 29, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia

Boston Bruins 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (SO)

Away

Boston Bruins

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 87% of the time.

PHI winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
BOS019011211061247
PHI290605012321

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:56PHIMichael Del ZottoAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Travis Konecny · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
  2. P1 15:28PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
  3. P3 4:26BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Torey Krug · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P3 5:44BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Torey Krug, Brandon Carlo · Snap, 0.46 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. PHI Nick Cousins stopped
  2. 2. BOS Ryan Spooner stopped
  3. 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
  4. 4. BOS Riley Nash stopped
  5. 5. PHI Wayne Simmonds stopped
  6. 6. BOS Patrice Bergeron stopped
  7. 7. PHI Travis Konecny stopped
  8. 8. BOS David Pastrnak stopped
  9. 9. PHI Jakub Voracek scored
  10. 10. BOS Brad Marchand scored
  11. 11. PHI Roman Lyubimov stopped
  12. 12. BOS David Krejci stopped
  13. 13. PHI Brayden Schenn stopped
  14. 14. BOS Jimmy Hayes stopped
  15. 15. PHI Matt Read stopped
  16. 16. BOS Torey Krug stopped
  17. 17. PHI Shayne Gostisbehere scored
  18. 18. BOS David Backes stopped
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 10:12PHIMichael Raffl: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 14:00BOSAustin Czarnik: Slashing2 min · PPG
  3. P2 0:26BOSMatt Beleskey: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 11:03PHIChris VandeVelde: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 11:53BOSDavid Backes: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 16:08BOSMatt Beleskey: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 18:20PHINick Cousins: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 5:28PHINick Cousins: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 5:28BOSDavid Pastrnak: Embellishment2 min
  10. P3 6:23BOSJoe Morrow: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
  11. P3 13:24BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 16:24PHITravis Konecny: Tripping2 min
  13. OT 3:53PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
  14. OT 3:53BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
44% to win56% to win
← BOS attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Bellemare
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSPHI
47Shots on goal21
4.4Expected goals1.8
80Shot attempts44
35Faceoffs won29
4Power plays5
14Penalty minutes12
36Hits30
9Blocked shots19
8Giveaways13
6Takeaways4

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Boston Bruins

Forward lines

  1. bestBackes – Krejci – Schaller8:40

    xG 0.87–0.05 (95%)attempts 22–3goals 0–0

  2. Moore – Hayes – Spooner4:34

    xG 0.66–0.09 (88%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0

  3. Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:18

    xG 0.49–0.15 (76%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1

  4. Beleskey – Nash – Czarnik7:36

    xG 0.15–0.03 (84%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestMorrow – Miller11:00

    xG 0.81–0.22 (79%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0

  2. McQuaid – Krug11:38

    xG 0.79–0.25 (76%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1

  3. Miller – Carlo11:40

    xG 0.52–0.06 (90%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0

Philadelphia Flyers

Forward lines

  1. VandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov4:06

    xG 0.02–0.05 (25%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0

  2. Weise – Schenn – Read4:25

    xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0

  3. Weise – Read – Bellemare5:32

    xG 0.03–0.09 (22%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0

  4. Simmonds – Cousins – Konecny7:13

    xG 0.21–0.39 (35%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. MacDonald – Gostisbehere10:58

    xG 0.24–0.36 (40%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1

  2. Gudas – Provorov12:51

    xG 0.05–0.80 (6%)attempts 3–18goals 0–0

  3. Streit – Del Zotto12:24

    xG 0.12–1.06 (10%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 1.8 xGBOS 4.4 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHIBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 77/100 · #255 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.92 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 39% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +33 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 87% of the time.

PHI winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).