Tue, Nov 29, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Nashville Predators 5, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 114 | 211 | 28 | 533 |
| COL | 115 | 110 | 115 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:52NSHMike FisherAssists: Austin Watson, Anthony Bitetto · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 15:58COLMikko RantanenAssists: Rene Bourque, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 0:07NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: P.K. Subban, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 3:04NSHKevin FialaAssists: Roman Josi, Mike Ribeiro · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 16:25COLRene BourqueAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Mikko Rantanen · Tip-in, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 0:34NSHRyan JohansenGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 2:42NSHAustin WatsonAssists: Roman Josi, Frederick Gaudreau · Tip-in, 0.12 xG5–2
- P3 4:01COLMikhail GrigorenkoAssists: Tyson Barrie, Matt Duchene · Backhand, 0.11 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 3:30COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:30NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:12NSHMatt Irwin: Holding2 min
- P3 4:45COLErik Johnson: Broken stick2 min
- P3 15:53COLJarome Iginla: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson11:46
xG 0.46–0.17 (72%)attempts 19–6goals 2–0
- Jarnkrok – Watson – Gaudreau8:31
xG 0.19–0.26 (43%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Fiala12:20
xG 0.36–0.47 (44%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Fisher – Wilson – Aberg6:39
xG 0.05–0.24 (18%)attempts 4–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm13:28
xG 0.63–0.30 (68%)attempts 23–12goals 1–0
- Subban – Josi6:52
xG 0.26–0.03 (91%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Josi – Irwin12:41
xG 0.21–0.14 (61%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Mitchell – Comeau11:50
xG 0.39–0.16 (71%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Colborne – Duchene – Grigorenko2:20
xG 0.11–0.04 (71%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- McLeod – Colborne – Martinsen3:33
xG 0.01–0.04 (21%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Soderberg – Duchene – Grigorenko9:41
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Zadorov11:52
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Johnson13:39
xG 0.27–0.25 (51%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
- Beauchemin – Barrie4:18
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).