Tue, Nov 29, 2016·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Minnesota Wild 4, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 114 | 116 | 212 | 442 |
| VAN | 07 | 216 | 312 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:07MINJason PominvilleAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 3:24MINJason PominvilleAssists: Erik Haula, Jason Zucker · Slap, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 9:23VANBrandon SutterPPAssists: Troy Stecher, Henrik Sedin · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 11:22VANBen HuttonPPAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–2
- P3 1:09VANLoui ErikssonAssists: Michael Chaput, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 2:08VANBo HorvatAssists: Luca Sbisa, Brandon Sutter · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 3:20MINJason ZuckerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 14:11MINErik HaulaAssists: Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–4
- P3 17:25VANSven BaertschiGWGAssists: Troy Stecher, Alexandre Burrows · Deflected, 0.04 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P2 6:10VANTroy Stecher: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:51MINMathew Dumba: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:41MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:55VANMarkus Granlund: Interference2 min
- P3 11:03MINTyler Graovac: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Haula – Niederreiter8:21
xG 0.71–0.18 (80%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund12:19
xG 0.61–0.23 (73%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Stewart – Graovac – Mitchell6:24
xG 0.04–0.20 (16%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Parise – Coyle14:06
xG 0.51–0.70 (42%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Brodin12:56
xG 0.78–0.38 (67%)attempts 12–13goals 1–2
- Scandella – Dumba3:55
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 1–0
- Dumba – Olofsson8:24
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBurrows – Baertschi – Horvat11:24
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Granlund – Gaunce3:30
xG 0.04–0.02 (70%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Skille – Gaunce – Megna3:12
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Chaput – Granlund7:17
xG 0.59–0.66 (47%)attempts 9–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Hutton15:52
xG 0.96–0.75 (56%)attempts 21–15goals 1–2
- Sbisa – Tryamkin2:40
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Stecher14:05
xG 0.75–0.93 (45%)attempts 15–15goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).