Tue, Nov 29, 2016·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Arizona Coyotes 1, San Jose Sharks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 05 | 15 | 09 | 00 | 119 |
| SJS | 013 | 116 | 012 | 11 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:19ARIMax DomiAssists: Radim Vrbata, Luke Schenn · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 15:29SJSChris TierneyAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- OT 0:19SJSBrent BurnsPPGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:53SJSJoel Ward: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:28ARIConnor Murphy: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:44ARIJamie McGinn: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:44SJSKevin Labanc: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:31SJSBrenden Dillon: Interference2 min
- P3 12:31ARIRyan White: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:59ARIMartin Hanzal: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Tierney
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- McGinn – Duclair – Dvorak11:18
xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- White – Dauphin – Crouse7:42
xG 0.03–0.48 (6%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Domi11:48
xG 0.11–0.64 (15%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Doan – Rieder – Martinook11:52
xG 0.70–1.84 (28%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Goligoski – Murphy5:52
xG 0.07–0.18 (27%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy13:16
xG 0.15–0.36 (29%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Schenn – Stone17:02
xG 0.60–1.21 (33%)attempts 9–24goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHaley – Carpenter – Labanc4:06
xG 0.93–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski14:21
xG 0.70–0.17 (80%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Boedker – Donskoi – Tierney2:37
xG 0.47–0.04 (93%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Boedker – Tierney – Karlsson5:47
xG 0.33–0.00 (99%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Dillon12:22
xG 1.25–0.10 (93%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Martin – Burns17:09
xG 1.75–0.74 (70%)attempts 22–12goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun13:07
xG 0.73–0.03 (96%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).