Wed, Nov 30, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Toronto Maple Leafs 0, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 012 | 013 | 014 | 039 |
| CGY | 310 | 013 | 06 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:19CGYFreddie HamiltonGWGAssists: Micheal Ferland, Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 0:49CGYKris VersteegAssists: Sean Monahan, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 15:49CGYMatt StajanAssists: Michael Frolik, Alex Chiasson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 13:37TORConnor Carrick: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:23CGYDougie Hamilton: Holding2 min
- P2 13:23TORNikita Zaitsev: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:56CGYKris Versteeg: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hamilton won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner14:24
xG 1.07–0.42 (72%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Martin – Smith – Nylander4:53
xG 0.28–0.08 (77%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews8:48
xG 0.19–0.06 (77%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kadri – Brown – Soshnikov2:09
xG 0.05–0.08 (40%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Zaitsev15:16
xG 0.51–0.28 (65%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Carrick15:48
xG 0.85–0.81 (51%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Polak – Hunwick13:56
xG 0.60–0.66 (48%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestVersteeg – Brouwer – Monahan10:51
xG 0.77–0.38 (67%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Stajan – Chiasson – Bennett10:45
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Ferland – Hathaway8:51
xG 0.24–0.35 (40%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk12:20
xG 0.35–1.06 (25%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Jokipakka16:01
xG 0.60–0.31 (66%)attempts 8–13goals 2–0
- Wideman – Brodie15:30
xG 0.55–0.53 (51%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton16:36
xG 0.73–1.31 (36%)attempts 19–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).