Thu, Dec 1, 2016·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New York Rangers 3, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 111 | 29 | 05 | 325 |
| BUF | 18 | 114 | 212 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:18BUFJohan LarssonAssists: Jake McCabe, Brian Gionta · Deflected, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 16:15NYRRyan McDonaghPPAssists: Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 8:15NYRRick NashPPAssists: Jimmy Vesey, Adam Clendening · Backhand, 0.30 xG2–1
- P2 9:48BUFBrian GiontaAssists: Marcus Foligno · Snap, 0.38 xG2–2
- P2 11:42NYRMarc StaalAssists: Jesper Fast, Chris Kreider · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 12:45BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 14:28BUFJack EichelGWGAssists: Sam Reinhart, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 15:10BUFMarcus Foligno: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:42BUFCody Franson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:31NYRBrandon Pirri: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:21NYRAdam Clendening: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Fast8:54
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Grabner – Zuccarello – Miller5:06
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Stepan – Kreider – Pirri2:10
xG 0.01–0.23 (5%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Grabner – Pirri – Lindberg4:57
xG 0.02–0.32 (5%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Holden18:45
xG 1.11–0.66 (63%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
- Clendening – Skjei11:19
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh18:38
xG 0.27–1.53 (15%)attempts 9–37goals 0–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Okposo – O'Reilly6:10
xG 0.80–0.24 (77%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Moulson – Grant – Girgensons3:43
xG 0.32–0.02 (95%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson11:16
xG 0.73–0.46 (61%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Kane – Reinhart – Eichel13:30
xG 0.41–0.37 (53%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – McCabe2:04
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Falk – Fedun11:29
xG 0.71–0.23 (76%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Gorges – Franson18:03
xG 0.57–0.11 (84%)attempts 19–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).