Thu, Dec 1, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Los Angeles Kings 4, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 114 | 110 | 29 | 433 |
| ARI | 26 | 014 | 112 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:15ARIMartin HanzalPPAssists: Radim Vrbata, Michael Stone · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 12:25LAKDwight KingAssists: Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 18:32ARIMartin HanzalPPAssists: Michael Stone, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 10:14LAKJordan NolanAssists: Kyle Clifford, Nicholas Shore · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 13:41LAKJordan NolanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 13:50ARITobias RiederAssists: Alex Goligoski, Jordan Martinook · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 15:55LAKTrevor LewisGWGAssists: Marian Gaborik, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:09LAKTyler Toffoli: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 0:39LAKTyler Toffoli: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:12ARIShane Doan: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:15ARIRadim Vrbata: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:22ARILaurent Dauphin: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:08LAKNicholas Shore: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:50ARIMartin Hanzal: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 4:00LAKDrew Doughty: Holding2 min
- P2 6:51LAKKyle Clifford: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:51ARILuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:31ARIRyan White: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:00LAKMarian Gaborik: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:08LAKJeff Carter: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:45ARIMartin Hanzal: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:45ARIShane Doan: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Kopitar – Lewis8:56
xG 0.89–0.20 (82%)attempts 18–4goals 1–1
- Clifford – Nolan – Shore5:43
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson7:57
xG 0.17–0.06 (74%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Brown – King – Dowd9:36
xG 0.20–0.50 (29%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Gravel7:28
xG 0.57–0.05 (92%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Doughty – Forbort15:44
xG 0.58–0.45 (56%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Muzzin – Martinez14:38
xG 0.70–0.64 (52%)attempts 19–17goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Rieder – Martinook7:51
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- McGinn – Duclair – Dvorak6:44
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
- White – Dauphin – Crouse7:11
xG 0.06–0.11 (34%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Domi10:05
xG 0.20–0.73 (21%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Murphy14:38
xG 0.45–0.26 (63%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Schenn – Chychrun9:01
xG 0.21–0.33 (39%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Stone12:29
xG 0.34–1.23 (22%)attempts 12–18goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).