Fri, Dec 2, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Minnesota Wild 2, Calgary Flames 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 17 | 08 | 19 | 01 | 1 | 225 |
| CGY | 29 | 05 | 013 | 04 | 2 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:50MINChris StewartAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Suter · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 12:26CGYKris VersteegAssists: Jyrki Jokipakka, Sean Monahan · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 13:33CGYMikael BacklundPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Troy Brouwer · Backhand, 0.38 xG1–2
- P3 7:40MINMikko KoivuAssists: Jason Zucker, Jared Spurgeon · Slap, 0.11 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Nino Niederreiter stopped
- 2. CGY Kris Versteeg scored
- 3. MIN Jason Pominville scored
- 4. CGY Sean Monahan scored
- 5. MIN Charlie Coyle stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:47MINNate Prosser: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:23MINErik Haula: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:33MINMikko Koivu: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:01CGYMikael Backlund: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:15MINChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:15CGYFreddie Hamilton: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:15CGYGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:15MINMarco Scandella: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:03CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Interference2 min
- P3 13:43MINMathew Dumba: Interference2 min
- P3 16:43CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:58MINJason Zucker: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Granlund11:21
xG 0.91–0.03 (97%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter12:10
xG 0.74–0.06 (92%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Stewart – Graovac – Gabriel5:23
xG 0.08–0.02 (78%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Parise – Coyle13:13
xG 0.07–0.83 (8%)attempts 3–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon15:52
xG 1.36–0.71 (66%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Brodin – Dumba15:51
xG 0.66–0.35 (65%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Scandella – Prosser12:05
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk12:52
xG 0.89–0.26 (77%)attempts 22–9goals 0–0
- Stajan – Chiasson – Bennett7:59
xG 0.03–0.20 (12%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Hamilton – Ferland – Hathaway7:40
xG 0.09–0.63 (13%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Monahan9:09
xG 0.14–0.87 (14%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton12:45
xG 0.31–0.07 (82%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Wideman – Brodie15:52
xG 0.72–0.97 (43%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Engelland – Jokipakka14:32
xG 0.13–0.89 (13%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).