Fri, Dec 2, 2016·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Montréal Canadiens 1, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 013 | 010 | 19 | 132 |
| SJS | 216 | 07 | 07 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:22SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 19:03SJSJoe PavelskiGWGAssists: Joe Thornton · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 18:43MTLArtturi LehkonenPPAssists: Andrew Shaw, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:24MTLMark Barberio: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:32MTLAlexei Emelin: Boarding2 min
- P2 0:17SJSDavid Schlemko: Interference2 min
- P3 6:17SJSLogan Couture: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:19MTLMax Pacioretty: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:54SJSLogan Couture: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Mitchell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher4:09
xG 0.37–0.07 (84%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Danault – Flynn7:20
xG 0.28–0.10 (73%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Byron – Shaw9:04
xG 0.13–0.08 (62%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Radulov – Galchenyuk – Lehkonen2:04
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Barberio10:26
xG 0.41–0.06 (87%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Markov – Petry15:20
xG 0.82–0.56 (60%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Weber – Emelin16:40
xG 0.75–0.52 (59%)attempts 21–17goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Ward – Couture – Labanc9:27
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Ward – Couture – Karlsson2:16
xG 0.01–0.10 (7%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Haley – Wingels – Karlsson6:40
xG 0.10–0.21 (33%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski12:16
xG 0.38–0.65 (37%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Vlasic – Braun13:17
xG 0.26–0.30 (46%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Braun – Dillon2:02
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Martin – Burns13:25
xG 0.41–0.66 (38%)attempts 15–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).