Sat, Dec 3, 2016·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 2, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 110 | 011 | 112 | 233 |
| BUF | 03 | 015 | 118 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:10BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Brandon Carlo, David Backes · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–0
- P3 7:44BOSPatrice BergeronGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 9:12BUFEvander KaneAssists: Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:12BOSBrandon Carlo: Interference2 min
- P1 14:24BUFBrian Gionta: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:17BUFJake McCabe: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:27BOSPatrice Bergeron: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:31BOSAustin Czarnik: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestNash – Blidh – Czarnik3:13
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Nash – Czarnik2:42
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Backes – Krejci – Schaller11:24
xG 0.34–0.57 (37%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:57
xG 0.27–0.51 (35%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug16:21
xG 0.49–0.32 (60%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
- Morrow – Miller10:20
xG 0.23–0.58 (28%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Miller – Carlo18:05
xG 0.53–1.42 (27%)attempts 16–20goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – O'Reilly – Carrier4:58
xG 1.51–0.03 (98%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Moulson – Okposo – O'Reilly6:06
xG 0.13–0.02 (89%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson11:17
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Grant – Girgensons – Carrier2:41
xG 0.01–0.04 (24%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – Fedun9:40
xG 0.95–0.25 (79%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Franson – Guhle14:04
xG 0.73–0.30 (71%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen19:41
xG 0.65–0.62 (51%)attempts 19–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).