Sat, Dec 3, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Carolina Hurricanes 2, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 015 | 110 | 13 | 228 |
| NYR | 13 | 08 | 312 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:05NYRDerek StepanAssists: Kevin Klein, Mats Zuccarello · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 8:34CARViktor StalbergAssists: Brock McGinn, Derek Ryan · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 5:54NYRMichael GrabnerAssists: Brady Skjei, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 6:26CARVictor RaskAssists: Brett Pesce, Jaccob Slavin · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 12:25NYRChris KreiderGWGAssists: Derek Stepan, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–3
- P3 17:11NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Derek Stepan · Snap, 0.06 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:43NYRJosh Jooris: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:25NYRRyan McDonagh: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:17NYRKevin Hayes: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:37CARLee Stempniak: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:59CARPhillip Di Giuseppe: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Teravainen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Teravainen – Aho10:13
xG 0.64–0.18 (78%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- McClement – Stalberg – Nordstrom9:01
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Skinner – Di Giuseppe – Teravainen2:09
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Nestrasil – McGinn – Ryan8:16
xG 0.23–0.52 (31%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce20:07
xG 0.78–0.32 (71%)attempts 22–13goals 1–1
- Tennyson – Hanifin10:23
xG 0.70–0.60 (54%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Faulk15:22
xG 0.65–1.18 (35%)attempts 14–14goals 0–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Zuccarello15:00
xG 1.42–0.29 (83%)attempts 21–9goals 3–1
- Grabner – Pirri – Fast8:43
xG 0.42–0.51 (45%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Miller – Puempel – Jooris7:35
xG 0.19–0.54 (26%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Nash – Hayes – Vesey12:20
xG 0.07–0.46 (14%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh16:53
xG 1.08–0.45 (71%)attempts 18–16goals 2–2
- Klein – Skjei14:29
xG 0.31–0.63 (33%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Staal – Holden18:12
xG 0.28–1.22 (19%)attempts 11–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).