Sat, Dec 3, 2016·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Detroit Red Wings 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 210 | 012 | 331 |
| PIT | 011 | 114 | 412 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:31DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Anthony Mantha, Tomas Tatar · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 8:00DETFrans NielsenAssists: Riley Sheahan, Danny DeKeyser · Snap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 11:00PITPhil KesselAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 18:14DETDylan LarkinAssists: Thomas Vanek, Mike Green · Slap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 2:05PITNick BoninoAssists: Ian Cole, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 6:28PITJustin SchultzAssists: Ian Cole, Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 10:54PITPhil KesselGWGAssists: Carl Hagelin, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 19:19PITMatt CullenENAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.69 xG3–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:03PITConor Sheary: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:47DETHenrik Zetterberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:53DETJonathan Ericsson: Interference2 min
- P2 16:12PITIan Cole: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Jurco – Glendening8:38
xG 0.48–0.30 (62%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Tatar – Mantha13:43
xG 0.35–0.38 (47%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Ott – Miller – Sheahan5:27
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Vanek – Nyquist – Larkin11:52
xG 0.25–0.89 (22%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ouellet2:34
xG 0.45–0.11 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Green2:07
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Green – DeKeyser17:40
xG 0.47–0.59 (44%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Hagelin – Rust5:40
xG 0.47–0.10 (82%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Sheary14:21
xG 0.66–0.37 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Bonino – Rust4:05
xG 0.25–0.03 (89%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin4:47
xG 0.46–0.29 (61%)attempts 10–3goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Schultz12:54
xG 1.12–0.22 (84%)attempts 19–6goals 2–0
- Letang – Dumoulin15:20
xG 0.56–0.46 (55%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Daley – Maatta14:22
xG 0.61–0.58 (51%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).