Mon, Dec 5, 2016·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Ottawa Senators 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 211 | 210 | 113 | 534 |
| PIT | 221 | 312 | 313 | 846 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:45PITBryan RustAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 8:18OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Chris Wideman · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 8:45PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Conor Sheary, Ian Cole · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 13:44OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 1:00OTTMark StonePPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–2
- P2 7:08OTTMike HoffmanPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone · Snap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P2 8:28PITMatt CullenSHAssists: Bryan Rust · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–3
- P2 14:13PITPhil KesselAssists: Justin Schultz, Ian Cole · Snap, 0.06 xG4–4
- P2 14:37PITJustin SchultzAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.08 xG4–5
- P3 1:05PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Phil Kessel · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–6
- P3 6:17OTTDion PhaneufPPAssists: Kyle Turris, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.26 xG5–6
- P3 12:36PITBryan RustUnassisted · Backhand, 0.31 xG5–7
- P3 17:32PITBryan RustENAssists: Chris Kunitz, Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.70 xG5–8
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:49OTTDerick Brassard: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 15:07OTTMark Borowiecki: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:33PITPatric Hornqvist: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:40PITTrevor Daley: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:30PITJustin Schultz: Interference2 min
- P2 14:56OTTTom Pyatt: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:05OTTDion Phaneuf: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:48PITMatt Cullen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:34PITPhil Kessel: Holding2 min
- P3 12:36OTTChris Wideman: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 0:00OTTAndreas Englund: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Turris – Dzingel – Pageau8:56
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Neil – Kelly – Pyatt3:06
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Brassard – Hoffman – Stone14:18
xG 0.35–0.80 (30%)attempts 17–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Ceci3:53
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Wideman4:30
xG 0.19–0.05 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Wideman4:17
xG 0.14–0.07 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Hagelin13:11
xG 0.50–0.19 (73%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Sheary11:20
xG 0.68–0.48 (59%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Bonino – Rust7:57
xG 0.22–0.04 (85%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Wilson6:48
xG 0.13–0.26 (34%)attempts 2–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Schultz14:12
xG 0.62–0.05 (92%)attempts 15–7goals 3–0
- Letang – Dumoulin13:35
xG 0.94–0.51 (65%)attempts 19–6goals 1–1
- Daley – Maatta14:02
xG 0.64–0.37 (63%)attempts 10–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).