Mon, Dec 5, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Arizona Coyotes 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 18 | 05 | 05 | 118 |
| CBJ | 111 | 17 | 216 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:28ARITobias RiederPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 11:39CBJSam GagnerPPAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Cam Atkinson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 5:09CBJNick FolignoPPGWGAssists: Cam Atkinson, Sam Gagner · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 11:37CBJSam GagnerAssists: Brandon Saad, Scott Hartnell · Snap, 0.34 xG1–3
- P3 15:00CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Sam Gagner · Snap, 0.02 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:23CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:24ARILawson Crouse: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:53ARIMartin Hanzal: Holding2 min
- P1 18:25CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:25ARIRyan White: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:56ARITobias Rieder: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:18ARIMartin Hanzal: Interference2 min
- P3 7:56ARILawson Crouse: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:56CBJSeth Jones: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:03ARIBrendan Perlini: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:30ARIMartin Hanzal: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Hanzal – Rieder7:00
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- McGinn – Martinook – Perlini9:47
xG 0.28–0.22 (56%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- White – Gaudet – Crouse6:24
xG 0.12–0.24 (34%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Doan – Domi – Dvorak8:29
xG 0.11–0.28 (27%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson2:34
xG 0.03–0.03 (54%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Stone11:08
xG 0.24–0.26 (49%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Murphy2:19
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Karlsson – Anderson8:55
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg10:28
xG 0.30–0.25 (54%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner9:57
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Calvert – Karlsson – Anderson3:06
xG 0.01–0.05 (21%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard16:54
xG 0.80–0.37 (68%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Murray – Nutivaara12:26
xG 0.47–0.17 (74%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski12:50
xG 0.40–0.32 (56%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).