Tue, Dec 6, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Detroit Red Wings 4, Winnipeg Jets 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 17 | 29 | 010 | 04 | 2 | 430 |
| WPG | 316 | 012 | 03 | 03 | 1 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:41WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Ben Chiarot, Marko Dano · Deflected, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 7:05DETTomas TatarAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Henrik Zetterberg · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 11:22WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Patrik Laine, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 13:06WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 10:59DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P2 17:52DETThomas VanekAssists: Xavier Ouellet, Gustav Nyquist · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. DET Frans Nielsen stopped
- 2. WPG Blake Wheeler stopped
- 3. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 4. WPG Patrik Laine scored
- 5. DET Thomas Vanek scored
- 6. WPG Bryan Little stopped
- 7. DET Henrik Zetterberg scored
- 8. WPG Drew Stafford stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:16WPGAlexander Burmistrov: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:52DETAnthony Mantha: Holding2 min
- P2 6:14DETSteve Ott: Holding2 min
- P2 13:55DETMike Green: Interference2 min
- P3 5:41WPGToby Enstrom: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Zetterberg – Tatar – Mantha11:36
xG 0.38–0.35 (51%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Nielsen – Glendening – Larkin5:38
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Ott – Miller – Larkin2:35
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Jurco – Glendening4:00
xG 0.08–0.08 (49%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Lashoff9:25
xG 0.20–0.03 (87%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Ericsson – Ouellet13:15
xG 0.25–0.19 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Green2:05
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Stafford – Perreault8:15
xG 0.91–0.28 (77%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Little – Ehlers – Laine7:36
xG 0.55–0.04 (93%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Little – Perreault – Laine5:00
xG 0.15–0.04 (78%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Dano10:38
xG 0.08–0.12 (41%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Morrissey17:44
xG 1.26–0.31 (80%)attempts 19–11goals 2–0
- Enstrom – Trouba17:55
xG 0.55–0.51 (52%)attempts 15–12goals 0–2
- Postma – Chiarot7:46
xG 0.07–0.07 (49%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).