Wed, Dec 7, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Minnesota Wild 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 28 | 19 | 03 | 320 |
| TOR | 110 | 110 | 017 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:42MINJason ZuckerAssists: Mikael Granlund, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 14:22MINChris StewartAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Kurtis Gabriel · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P1 16:50TORBen SmithAssists: Nazem Kadri, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.27 xG2–1
- P2 1:15MINEric StaalGWGAssists: Charlie Coyle · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 10:54TORTyler BozakUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:55TORFrederik Andersen: Interference2 min
- P2 2:07TORRoman Polak: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:07MINKurtis Gabriel: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:57MINEric Staal: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:46MINRyan Suter: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Stewart – Graovac – Gabriel5:57
xG 0.35–0.31 (53%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Staal – Coyle – Niederreiter11:59
xG 0.34–0.34 (51%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund11:30
xG 0.46–0.56 (45%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Pominville – Parise – Haula8:43
xG 0.16–0.58 (22%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Prosser10:36
xG 0.40–0.13 (76%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba14:04
xG 0.39–0.63 (38%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Suter – Spurgeon17:44
xG 0.69–1.11 (38%)attempts 8–32goals 3–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Brown – Matthews13:13
xG 0.49–0.21 (71%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner12:40
xG 0.58–0.32 (64%)attempts 19–5goals 1–1
- Komarov – Kadri – Nylander6:35
xG 0.51–0.34 (60%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Martin – Smith – Nylander3:00
xG 0.06–0.02 (77%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Zaitsev14:37
xG 0.98–0.40 (71%)attempts 21–8goals 1–1
- Polak – Hunwick11:34
xG 0.50–0.29 (63%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Rielly2:41
xG 0.17–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).