Wed, Dec 7, 2016·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Ottawa Senators 4, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 26 | 05 | 26 | 417 |
| SJS | 09 | 110 | 118 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:42OTTMark StonePPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 7:19OTTErik KarlssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 8:19SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 6:30SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 18:54OTTChris KellyGWGAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 19:44OTTJean-Gabriel PageauENAssists: Zack Smith · Backhand, 0.49 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:09SJSTommy Wingels: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:46OTTBuddy Robinson: Holding2 min
- P1 14:58OTTChris Kelly: Interference2 min
- P2 6:54OTTErik Karlsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:51SJSMicheal Haley: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:11OTTChris Neil: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:27OTTDion Phaneuf: Interference2 min
- P3 4:52OTTChris Neil: Interference2 min
- P3 5:46SJSMikkel Boedker: Interference2 min
- P3 16:02SJSPatrick Marleau: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Neil – Kelly – Robinson4:17
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Smith – Pageau7:48
xG 0.24–0.43 (36%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Brassard – Hoffman – Stone11:45
xG 0.10–0.61 (15%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Dzingel7:28
xG 0.12–0.70 (14%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Englund2:06
xG 0.22–0.05 (82%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Wideman2:16
xG 0.12–0.06 (69%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Ceci4:28
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Pavelski12:29
xG 0.92–0.16 (85%)attempts 21–5goals 0–1
- Haley – Wingels – Karlsson4:48
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Boedker – Donskoi – Tierney5:48
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Ward – Couture – Labanc6:55
xG 0.20–0.25 (44%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Burns12:28
xG 1.02–0.06 (94%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Dillon – DeMelo8:45
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Burns – Dillon2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).