Thu, Dec 8, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Vancouver Canucks 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 29 | 211 | 110 | 530 |
| TBL | 012 | 118 | 011 | 141 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:50VANJack SkilleAssists: Erik Gudbranson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 9:03VANErik GudbransonGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 6:01VANJayson MegnaAssists: Alex Biega, Nikita Tryamkin · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 11:46TBLJonathan DrouinAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Luke Witkowski · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–1
- P2 19:59VANJayson MegnaAssists: Daniel Sedin, Markus Granlund · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 13:58VANJack SkilleAssists: Brendan Gaunce · Snap, 0.05 xG5–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:15TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:26TBLBraydon Coburn: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:39VANBrendan Gaunce: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:22TBLTyler Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:08VANBen Hutton: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 15:22VANAlex Biega: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Namestnikov won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBurrows – Baertschi – Horvat11:30
xG 0.49–0.36 (58%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Granlund – Megna10:53
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
- Skille – Chaput – Gaunce5:46
xG 0.27–0.33 (45%)attempts 6–9goals 2–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Sutter12:23
xG 0.41–0.63 (40%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Tryamkin12:56
xG 0.59–0.26 (69%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Sbisa – Stecher13:42
xG 0.67–0.41 (62%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Hutton16:10
xG 0.47–1.11 (30%)attempts 12–27goals 2–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Kucherov – Namestnikov7:15
xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 12–7goals 0–3
- Boyle – Brown – Paquette5:28
xG 0.23–0.14 (61%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Filppula – Drouin – Point7:11
xG 0.53–0.45 (54%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Boyle – Namestnikov – Brown3:18
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Sustr8:20
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 12–8goals 0–3
- Garrison – Witkowski5:52
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Coburn – Sustr4:31
xG 0.14–0.02 (85%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).