Thu, Dec 8, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 96% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 37 | 011 | 212 | 530 |
| FLA | 07 | 14 | 018 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:06PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 4:51PITConor ShearyGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Justin Schultz · Slap, 0.24 xG2–0
- P1 7:34PITTom KuhnhacklAssists: Scott Wilson · Tip-in, 0.28 xG3–0
- P2 6:17FLAJaromir JagrPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 5:48PITMatt CullenAssists: Scott Wilson, Justin Schultz · Slap, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 19:27PITCarl HagelinENAssists: Matt Murray · Snap, 0.70 xG5–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:27PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:21FLAReilly Smith: Holding2 min
- P2 4:11FLAJussi Jokinen: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:11PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:00PITScott Wilson: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 19:37FLAKeith Yandle: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:09FLAAleksander Barkov: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:13PITPatric Hornqvist: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Kuhnhackl – Wilson10:11
xG 1.14–0.09 (93%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin11:44
xG 0.66–0.11 (86%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Bonino – Rust10:12
xG 0.28–0.02 (92%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Sheary12:02
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Schultz12:17
xG 1.19–0.15 (89%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Daley – Maatta14:40
xG 0.59–0.13 (82%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin17:13
xG 0.74–0.34 (68%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Rau – Griffith3:53
xG 0.15–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck2:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Jagr – Smith – Barkov12:14
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Sceviour – Trocheck10:34
xG 0.23–0.62 (27%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Matheson10:16
xG 0.37–0.05 (88%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Demers – Matheson4:55
xG 0.06–0.13 (30%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kindl – Pysyk3:38
xG 0.01–0.19 (3%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 96% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).