Thu, Dec 8, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Calgary Flames 2, Arizona Coyotes 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 19 | 015 | 09 | 12 | 235 |
| ARI | 19 | 08 | 010 | 01 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:23ARIMax DomiAssists: Christian Dvorak, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–1
- P1 17:45CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- OT 1:09CGYDougie HamiltonGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–1
Penalties (16)
- P1 5:15CGYAlex Chiasson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 8:17CGYLance Bouma: Boarding2 min
- P1 8:17CGYLance Bouma: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:17ARIRyan White: Instigator2 min
- P1 8:17ARIRyan White: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:17ARIRyan White: Misconduct10 min
- P1 13:38ARIConnor Murphy: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 13:38CGYMicheal Ferland: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:06ARIAnthony Duclair: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:35ARIAnthony Duclair: Holding2 min
- P2 14:17ARIRyan White: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:36ARIMax Domi: Interference2 min
- P2 19:36CGYGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:36ARIMax Domi: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:33CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:25CGYTJ Brodie: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk11:18
xG 0.46–0.31 (60%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Gaudreau – Bennett11:03
xG 0.22–0.14 (62%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Hathaway5:40
xG 0.20–0.22 (49%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Ferland – Monahan7:39
xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Brodie16:57
xG 0.55–0.44 (56%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Engelland – Jokipakka12:55
xG 0.12–0.07 (64%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton12:47
xG 0.42–0.42 (50%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Domi – Dvorak7:31
xG 0.89–0.17 (84%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Hanzal – Rieder – Duclair3:11
xG 0.15–0.04 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Rieder6:48
xG 0.22–0.11 (66%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Martinook – Perlini4:30
xG 0.08–0.14 (37%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Murphy9:53
xG 0.28–0.04 (88%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Murphy – Chychrun2:18
xG 0.08–0.07 (54%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Stone14:10
xG 0.34–0.38 (48%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).