Fri, Dec 9, 2016·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 4, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 011 | 28 | 210 | 429 |
| BUF | 08 | 010 | 110 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:43WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Jay Beagle, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 12:39WSHJakub VranaPPGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Dmitry Orlov · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–0
- P3 12:03BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–1
- P3 14:20WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 18:48WSHMarcus JohanssonENAssists: T.J. Oshie, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:35WSHTaylor Chorney: Interference2 min
- P1 17:48BUFCody Franson: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:52BUFDmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:29WSHDaniel Winnik: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:50WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Interference2 min
- P3 7:10WSHNate Schmidt: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:27WSHBrooks Orpik: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:28BUFBrian Gionta: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Ovechkin – Kuznetsov10:12
xG 0.33–0.04 (89%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson5:51
xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Eller – Burakovsky – Vrana3:54
xG 0.12–0.25 (33%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Burakovsky4:16
xG 0.06–0.19 (24%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChorney – Schmidt12:04
xG 0.46–0.11 (81%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Orpik – Orlov14:23
xG 0.17–0.28 (38%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson14:37
xG 0.39–0.62 (39%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Girgensons – Carrier2:18
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Okposo – O'Reilly – Carrier6:52
xG 0.19–0.04 (81%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson7:57
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Moulson – Deslauriers – Girgensons2:28
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen13:33
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Franson – Kulikov11:53
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Gorges – Falk8:29
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).