Fri, Dec 9, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 18 | 210 | 17 | 425 |
| DET | 011 | 111 | 011 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:08CBJCam AtkinsonSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 4:46DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Frans Nielsen · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 8:34CBJBrandon DubinskyGWGAssists: Cam Atkinson, David Savard · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 13:30CBJLukas SedlakAssists: Sam Gagner, Markus Nutivaara · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 19:46CBJSam GagnerENAssists: Lukas Sedlak, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.52 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:46CBJSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:03CBJZach Werenski: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:38CBJScott Hartnell: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:38DETSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:48CBJOliver Bjorkstrand: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Calvert – Sedlak9:18
xG 0.28–0.07 (79%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner12:03
xG 0.38–0.28 (58%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Saad – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg11:15
xG 0.50–0.40 (55%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Karlsson – Anderson9:55
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard16:42
xG 0.65–0.37 (63%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
- Jones – Werenski16:20
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Murray – Nutivaara15:14
xG 0.43–0.64 (40%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Glendening – Larkin11:30
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Jurco – Glendening – Athanasiou2:03
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Ott – Jurco – Athanasiou4:39
xG 0.10–0.20 (33%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Vanek – Nyquist – Sheahan9:20
xG 0.25–0.47 (34%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLashoff – Marchenko5:31
xG 0.38–0.28 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Green – Lashoff3:43
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ouellet16:13
xG 0.36–0.36 (49%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).