Sat, Dec 10, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Boston Bruins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 02 | 28 | 210 | 420 |
| BOS | 011 | 110 | 012 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:44TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 15:14TORZach HymanGWGAssists: Jake Gardiner, Matt Hunwick · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 18:39BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Backes · Backhand, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 9:52TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Tyler Bozak, Matt Hunwick · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 18:27TORConnor BrownENAssists: Morgan Rielly · Backhand, 0.60 xG4–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 7:39TORMitch Marner: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:07BOSZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:46BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nylander – Matthews5:59
xG 0.34–0.11 (76%)attempts 5–6goals 2–0
- Martin – Smith – Soshnikov8:41
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Brown7:43
xG 0.12–0.08 (61%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Nylander3:49
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Rielly3:28
xG 0.24–0.03 (89%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Polak – Gardiner3:14
xG 0.07–0.05 (57%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Marincin2:23
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestNash – Spooner – Czarnik9:12
xG 0.23–0.05 (84%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:08
xG 0.35–0.31 (53%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Backes – Krejci – Heinen12:00
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Moore – Schaller – Acciari6:24
xG 0.05–0.37 (12%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Morrow14:03
xG 0.49–0.24 (67%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Chara – Carlo15:51
xG 0.36–0.44 (45%)attempts 14–8goals 0–2
- McQuaid – Krug14:32
xG 0.26–0.37 (42%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).