Sat, Dec 10, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 115 | 111 | 211 | 437 |
| TBL | 18 | 26 | 09 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:03PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 17:57TBLJonathan DrouinPPAssists: Anton Stralman, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 3:38TBLValtteri FilppulaAssists: Nikita Nesterov · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 10:19TBLJonathan DrouinAssists: Jason Garrison, Vladislav Namestnikov · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 17:25PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 5:08PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 8:36PITEvgeni MalkinPPGWGAssists: Trevor Daley, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 4:43TBLNikita Nesterov: Holding2 min
- P1 8:52TBLNikita Kucherov: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:52PITTrevor Daley: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:07PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:07PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:13TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:01PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:52TBLAndrej Sustr: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:57TBLAlex Killorn: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 1:57PITTrevor Daley: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:41TBLNikita Nesterov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:25TBLBraydon Coburn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:25PITIan Cole: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:25TBLCedric Paquette: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:25TBLCedric Paquette: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:44PITPatric Hornqvist: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Hagelin9:29
xG 0.50–0.12 (80%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Cullen – Kuhnhackl – Wilson7:55
xG 0.22–0.13 (62%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Bonino – Rust10:03
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Sheary10:23
xG 0.41–0.56 (42%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin14:48
xG 0.87–0.32 (73%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Schultz – Maatta2:27
xG 0.11–0.03 (78%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Cole – Schultz10:57
xG 0.23–0.25 (47%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Namestnikov – Drouin4:13
xG 0.11–0.01 (89%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Killorn – Drouin – Point8:24
xG 0.30–0.25 (54%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov8:42
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Boyle – Kucherov – Namestnikov2:29
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Nesterov7:52
xG 0.43–0.10 (81%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Garrison – Witkowski3:18
xG 0.07–0.05 (56%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Garrison – Sustr3:49
xG 0.06–0.09 (42%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).