Sat, Dec 10, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Nashville Predators 1, Arizona Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 114 | 019 | 012 | 145 |
| ARI | 210 | 111 | 113 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:50ARIAlex GoligoskiAssists: Lawson Crouse, Jordan Martinook · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 14:47ARILaurent DauphinGWGAssists: Tyler Gaudet, Ryan White · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–2
- P1 15:50NSHRoman JosiAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Ryan Johansen · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 12:48ARIBrendan PerliniAssists: Shane Doan, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 14:28ARIMartin HanzalAssists: Radim Vrbata, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:04NSHKevin Fiala: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:23ARIJakob Chychrun: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:28ARITony DeAngelo: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:28NSHRyan Johansen: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:53NSHP.K. Subban: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:53ARILawson Crouse: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:37ARIJakob Chychrun: Holding2 min
- P2 10:44NSHRoman Josi: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:03ARIJordan Martinook: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:00ARIBrendan Perlini: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Martinook
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Johansen – Arvidsson3:34
xG 0.30–0.05 (86%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Neal – Johansen – Arvidsson9:59
xG 0.34–0.14 (72%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Forsberg – Fiala9:29
xG 0.38–0.22 (64%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Wilson – Smith – Jarnkrok5:03
xG 0.09–0.02 (79%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm18:00
xG 0.81–0.67 (55%)attempts 24–16goals 0–1
- Josi – Ekholm2:15
xG 0.02–0.05 (25%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Weber – Granberg4:10
xG 0.01–0.07 (15%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhite – Dauphin – Gaudet8:01
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
- McGinn – Martinook – Crouse9:10
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Rieder10:30
xG 0.45–0.60 (43%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Doan – Perlini – Dvorak9:39
xG 0.32–0.73 (30%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chychrun4:51
xG 0.56–0.04 (94%)attempts 7–2goals 3–0
- Goligoski – DeAngelo8:17
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Schenn2:57
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).