Sat, Dec 10, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Winnipeg Jets 2, Calgary Flames 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 09 | 06 | 213 | 228 |
| CGY | 016 | 413 | 26 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:29CGYDougie HamiltonAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 13:00CGYSam BennettAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 15:20CGYDougie HamiltonGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund · Slap, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 17:52CGYMikael BacklundPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–4
- P3 3:31CGYLance BoumaAssists: Garnet Hathaway, Matt Stajan · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–5
- P3 13:59WPGNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–5
- P3 16:28CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano · Slap, 0.19 xG1–6
- P3 19:59WPGJacob TroubaAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:40CGYDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:40WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:29WPGPatrik Laine: Boarding2 min
- P2 1:00CGYSean Monahan: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:39WPGDrew Stafford: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:42CGYTJ Brodie: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:08WPGDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:23CGYDeryk Engelland: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:19WPGDustin Byfuglien: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 15:19CGYGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:19WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:57CGYMichael Frolik: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLittle – Ehlers – Laine6:12
xG 0.54–0.15 (78%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Little – Perreault – Laine5:12
xG 0.19–0.04 (82%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Tanev3:33
xG 0.16–0.04 (79%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Dano5:59
xG 0.25–0.15 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Trouba14:04
xG 0.53–0.42 (56%)attempts 18–13goals 0–2
- Postma – Chiarot12:26
xG 0.17–0.27 (38%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Byfuglien – Morrissey16:39
xG 0.87–1.03 (46%)attempts 22–17goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk9:18
xG 0.50–0.11 (82%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Hathaway8:31
xG 0.13–0.15 (46%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Gaudreau – Bennett10:33
xG 0.41–0.50 (45%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Ferland – Monahan10:19
xG 0.10–0.63 (13%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton12:27
xG 0.95–0.23 (81%)attempts 21–10goals 3–0
- Brodie – Hamilton2:56
xG 0.32–0.02 (94%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Wideman – Jokipakka2:54
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).