Sat, Dec 10, 2016·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Carolina Hurricanes 3, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 111 | 111 | 111 | 333 |
| SJS | 210 | 24 | 06 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:12SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joe Thornton, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 1:59CARLee StempniakPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 3:14SJSPaul MartinAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Melker Karlsson · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 11:02CARJoakim NordstromSHAssists: Victor Rask · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 12:18SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Brent Burns, Joel Ward · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 14:10SJSKevin LabancGWGAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–4
- P3 3:42CARDerek RyanPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:37SJSJoe Thornton: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:12CARDerek Ryan: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:27SJSBrenden Dillon: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:37SJSBrent Burns: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:37CARJeff Skinner: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Teravainen won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Rask – Ryan4:24
xG 0.74–0.12 (86%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Teravainen – Aho16:09
xG 0.45–0.33 (57%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Nestrasil – Skinner – Ryan8:04
xG 0.46–0.43 (52%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Rask – Di Giuseppe – McGinn6:24
xG 0.26–0.37 (41%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce16:49
xG 0.88–0.54 (62%)attempts 22–10goals 0–3
- Hainsey – Faulk16:35
xG 0.93–0.66 (59%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Tennyson – Hanifin10:46
xG 0.39–0.29 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWingels – Nieto – Karlsson4:28
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Wingels – Donskoi – Nieto4:05
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Boedker – Tierney – Karlsson5:47
xG 0.10–0.03 (75%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Ward – Couture – Labanc6:00
xG 0.12–0.27 (30%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – DeMelo3:12
xG 0.39–0.30 (57%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Burns – Dillon5:57
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Burns – Braun2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).