Sun, Dec 11, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Colorado Avalanche 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 18 | 015 | 26 | 329 |
| TOR | 021 | 010 | 121 | 152 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:51COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Jarome Iginla · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 7:27COLNathan MacKinnonPPGWGAssists: Tyson Barrie, Semyon Varlamov · Snap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 17:24TORJake GardinerPPAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Mitch Marner · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 18:49COLBlake ComeauENUnassisted · Snap, 0.48 xG3–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:20COLEric Gelinas: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:14COLRene Bourque: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:03TORTyler Bozak: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:14COLGabriel Landeskog: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 13:28TORMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:28COLNikita Zadorov: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:18COLGabriel Landeskog: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:23TORJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:27TORLeo Komarov: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 15:55COLPatrick Wiercioch: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P3 17:09COLNikita Zadorov: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Soderberg – McLeod – Martinsen3:26
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Bourque – Landeskog – MacKinnon9:20
xG 0.42–0.43 (50%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Iginla – Mitchell – Comeau9:05
xG 0.19–0.36 (34%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Duchene – Grigorenko – Rantanen10:01
xG 0.25–1.06 (19%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Tyutin – Wiercioch2:29
xG 0.01–0.10 (11%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Barrie9:42
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Gelinas10:38
xG 0.48–0.73 (39%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nylander – Matthews10:51
xG 1.20–0.27 (82%)attempts 24–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner5:10
xG 0.32–0.06 (85%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Martin – Smith – Marner3:35
xG 0.27–0.04 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown3:58
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Carrick15:06
xG 1.30–0.61 (68%)attempts 25–13goals 0–0
- Polak – Hunwick10:46
xG 0.65–0.27 (71%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Rielly – Zaitsev12:48
xG 0.63–0.64 (50%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).