Mon, Dec 12, 2016·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Arizona Coyotes 0, Pittsburgh Penguins 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 07 | 011 | 014 | 032 |
| PIT | 115 | 415 | 24 | 734 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:40PITScott WilsonGWGAssists: Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 4:30PITNick BoninoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 6:58PITTrevor DaleyUnassisted · Slap, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 8:30PITBryan RustAssists: Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
- P2 15:13PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.37 xG0–5
- P3 1:20PITPhil KesselAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Carl Hagelin · Slap, 0.04 xG0–6
- P3 12:26PITJustin SchultzPPAssists: Nick Bonino, Conor Sheary · Slap, 0.07 xG0–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:28PITTrevor Daley: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:47ARIRyan White: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:05PITTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:57ARIShane Doan: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:43ARIJakob Chychrun: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:22ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 14:22ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 2:01ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:48PITBryan Rust: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:57ARIMartin Hanzal: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Martinook won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Martinook – Crouse4:33
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- McGinn – Martinook – Crouse5:29
xG 0.41–0.27 (61%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- McGinn – Rieder – Dvorak2:26
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Perlini3:23
xG 0.06–0.01 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – DeAngelo11:50
xG 0.69–0.37 (65%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson11:07
xG 0.40–0.16 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Ekman-Larsson – DeAngelo2:04
xG 0.12–0.09 (58%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Hagelin8:46
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Kunitz – Bonino – Rust7:59
xG 0.34–0.32 (51%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Sheary9:34
xG 0.13–0.37 (25%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Cullen – Kuhnhackl – Wilson7:35
xG 0.04–0.33 (10%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Schultz9:18
xG 0.61–0.28 (68%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Daley – Maatta10:45
xG 0.52–0.51 (50%)attempts 13–13goals 3–0
- Daley – Dumoulin2:01
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).