Tue, Dec 13, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Arizona Coyotes 4, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 26 | 19 | 14 | 419 |
| DET | 17 | 013 | 018 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:01ARITony DeAngeloPPAssists: Tobias Rieder, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 16:12DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Thomas Vanek · Deflected, 0.26 xG1–1
- P1 19:44ARILawson CrouseGWGAssists: Radim Vrbata · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 2:39ARIJamie McGinnAssists: Peter Holland, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 11:27ARIJamie McGinnAssists: Anthony Duclair, Peter Holland · Snap, 0.26 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:22DETAlexey Marchenko: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 3:37ARILawson Crouse: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:25DETNiklas Kronwall: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:26ARILuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:26DETAnthony Mantha: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:39ARIChristian Dvorak: Holding2 min
- P2 15:20ARILuke Schenn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:28ARILawson Crouse: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Martinook won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Holland – Duclair11:58
xG 0.96–0.46 (68%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Perlini11:09
xG 0.04–0.58 (6%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Jooris – Dvorak – Crouse8:46
xG 0.05–0.61 (7%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Doan – Rieder – Martinook10:36
xG 0.11–0.73 (13%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Chychrun9:50
xG 0.53–0.38 (58%)attempts 5–11goals 2–0
- Schenn – Chychrun2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Schenn – Ekman-Larsson14:21
xG 0.45–0.60 (43%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Nyquist – Athanasiou10:22
xG 0.80–0.09 (90%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Sheahan – Larkin11:44
xG 1.00–0.41 (71%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Zetterberg – Tatar – Glendening5:04
xG 0.81–0.26 (76%)attempts 12–1goals 0–1
- Ott – Jurco – Mantha3:05
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – DeKeyser14:27
xG 1.26–0.13 (90%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Kronwall – Ouellet14:17
xG 0.53–0.11 (83%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Ouellet – DeKeyser2:26
xG 0.34–0.04 (89%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).