Tue, Dec 13, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
St. Louis Blues 3, Nashville Predators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 210 | 18 | 08 | 326 |
| NSH | 09 | 215 | 412 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:12STLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 16:41STLRyan ReavesAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 1:49STLBrad HuntPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Kevin Shattenkirk · Slap, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 4:07NSHJames NealAssists: Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 6:22NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 3:04NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Colin Wilson · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 9:02NSHMike FisherGWGAssists: Colin Wilson, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 10:31NSHMike RibeiroAssists: Craig Smith, Kevin Fiala · Snap, 0.20 xG3–5
- P3 18:38NSHMike FisherENAssists: Austin Watson · Wrist, 0.51 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:08STLJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:28STLPatrik Berglund: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:52NSHJames Neal: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:24NSHP.K. Subban: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:24STLDavid Perron: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Brodziak – Reaves7:10
xG 0.16–0.05 (77%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Berglund – Lehtera – Yakupov11:14
xG 0.26–0.37 (41%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
- Tarasenko – Schwartz – Fabbri11:44
xG 0.50–0.61 (45%)attempts 10–15goals 1–2
- Steen – Stastny – Perron12:00
xG 0.31–0.60 (34%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Edmundson – Parayko16:14
xG 0.51–0.53 (49%)attempts 14–14goals 1–2
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo19:14
xG 0.50–0.64 (44%)attempts 9–26goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – Hunt15:06
xG 0.39–0.93 (30%)attempts 15–19goals 1–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Johansen – Forsberg14:15
xG 0.89–0.65 (58%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Ribeiro – Smith – Fiala11:26
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Jarnkrok – Watson – Sissons8:32
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Fisher – Wilson – Arvidsson9:56
xG 0.13–0.40 (24%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis15:49
xG 0.79–0.47 (63%)attempts 25–8goals 3–1
- Josi – Irwin2:50
xG 0.21–0.00 (99%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Subban – Ekholm17:55
xG 0.64–0.45 (58%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).