Tue, Dec 13, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Florida Panthers 1, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 013 | 010 | 17 | 130 |
| MIN | 15 | 28 | 29 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:19MINZach PariseAssists: Jason Pominville, Jonas Brodin · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 4:11MINErik HaulaGWGAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Charlie Coyle · Snap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 9:46MINEric StaalAssists: Jason Pominville, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–3
- P3 6:04MINMikko KoivuAssists: Jason Zucker, Mikael Granlund · Snap, 0.10 xG0–4
- P3 8:26MINJason ZuckerAssists: Mathew Dumba, Jonas Brodin · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–5
- P3 15:36FLADylan McIlrathAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith · Snap, 0.03 xG1–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:57MINCharlie Coyle: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:35FLAJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P1 2:46MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:36FLADylan McIlrath: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:36MINKurtis Gabriel: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 8:36MINKurtis Gabriel: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:58MINRyan Suter: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:09MINRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:12FLADylan McIlrath: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:12MINChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:27FLAMike Matheson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Sceviour – Bjugstad – Rau3:45
xG 0.05–0.05 (50%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Thompson – Rau3:18
xG 0.12–0.13 (47%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Thompson – Trocheck3:05
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Smith – Marchessault3:39
xG 0.07–0.16 (29%)attempts 5–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcIlrath – Matheson2:02
xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad3:18
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson3:40
xG 0.07–0.11 (39%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Staal – Parise10:45
xG 1.04–0.12 (90%)attempts 15–9goals 2–1
- Haula – Coyle – Niederreiter10:18
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund11:37
xG 0.35–0.21 (62%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Stewart – Graovac – Gabriel4:27
xG 0.13–0.19 (41%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba12:50
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 11–17goals 2–1
- Scandella – Folin13:33
xG 0.36–0.06 (86%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon17:34
xG 0.84–0.62 (57%)attempts 8–21goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).