Wed, Dec 14, 2016·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Boston Bruins 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 116 | 116 | 110 | 02 | 344 |
| PIT | 111 | 112 | 113 | 11 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:48BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Backes, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 12:49PITJustin SchultzAssists: Sidney Crosby, Conor Sheary · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 6:40BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Tim Schaller, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–1
- P2 9:47PITNick BoninoPPAssists: Trevor Daley, Matt Murray · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 9:02PITConor ShearyPPAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Justin Schultz · Tip-in, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 13:20BOSDavid PastrnakUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 1:24PITBryan RustGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Justin Schultz · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:49PITChris Kunitz: Interference2 min
- P1 14:34BOSJimmy Hayes: Boarding2 min
- P1 16:31PITPatric Hornqvist: Holding2 min
- P1 17:12PITKris Letang: Interference2 min
- P2 8:08BOSBrad Marchand: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:31PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:00BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:21BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Schaller – Pastrnak10:27
xG 0.88–0.63 (58%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Moore – Nash – Acciari4:45
xG 0.32–0.11 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Krejci – Spooner – Pastrnak2:39
xG 0.03–0.09 (22%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Backes – Marchand12:31
xG 0.36–0.48 (43%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Grzelcyk5:00
xG 0.64–0.26 (71%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Chara – Carlo14:55
xG 0.99–0.66 (60%)attempts 20–13goals 1–1
- McQuaid – Krug8:51
xG 0.53–0.32 (63%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Sheary6:10
xG 0.63–0.24 (72%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Bonino – Rust5:56
xG 0.28–0.02 (92%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Sheary7:23
xG 0.48–0.40 (55%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Hornqvist – Bonino3:47
xG 0.15–0.08 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Schultz11:42
xG 0.44–0.13 (77%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Daley – Maatta13:46
xG 0.85–0.65 (56%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Letang – Dumoulin16:06
xG 0.39–1.22 (24%)attempts 10–20goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).