Thu, Dec 15, 2016·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Chicago Blackhawks 5, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 313 | 17 | 112 | 532 |
| NYI | 311 | 114 | 07 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:14NYIAndrew LaddAssists: Alan Quine, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 3:48NYICasey CizikasAssists: Nikolay Kulemin · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–2
- P1 9:47CHIArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P1 13:03CHIArtem AnisimovPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- P1 14:08CHIMarian HossaAssists: Ryan Hartman, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
- P1 15:20NYIRyan StromeAssists: Brock Nelson, Johnny Boychuk · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P2 0:22NYIAnders LeeAssists: Travis Hamonic, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–4
- P2 19:41CHIArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.09 xG4–4
- P3 13:47CHIRichard PanikGWGAssists: Dennis Rasmussen, Marcus Kruger · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:14NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:46NYIDennis Seidenberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:08CHIPatrick Kane: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:28NYIJosh Bailey: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:43CHIDennis Rasmussen: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Desjardins – Hinostroza7:48
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin11:11
xG 0.68–0.61 (53%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Hossa – Toews – Hartman12:45
xG 0.76–0.77 (50%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Panik – Kruger – Rasmussen10:48
xG 0.37–0.47 (44%)attempts 14–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Seabrook4:51
xG 0.41–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Campbell – van Riemsdyk14:11
xG 0.90–0.69 (57%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson15:31
xG 0.89–0.84 (52%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee12:20
xG 1.46–1.01 (59%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Cizikas6:17
xG 0.52–0.18 (74%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Nelson – Prince – Strome9:21
xG 0.77–0.48 (62%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Chimera – Ladd – Quine10:53
xG 0.41–0.16 (72%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Leddy17:41
xG 2.01–0.44 (82%)attempts 22–12goals 2–0
- Boychuk – Hickey12:10
xG 0.67–1.05 (39%)attempts 13–15goals 2–0
- Seidenberg – de Haan14:13
xG 0.41–0.86 (32%)attempts 8–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).