Thu, Dec 15, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Arizona Coyotes 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 07 | 28 | 012 | 03 | 1 | 330 |
| TOR | 121 | 18 | 013 | 04 | 0 | 246 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:52TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander, Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 1:10ARIJordan MartinookAssists: Radim Vrbata, Brendan Perlini · Snap, 0.28 xG1–1
- P2 3:24ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Tobias Rieder, Tony DeAngelo · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 13:56TORMitch MarnerAssists: Roman Polak, Matt Hunwick · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TOR Tyler Bozak stopped
- 2. ARI Anthony Duclair stopped
- 3. TOR Mitch Marner stopped
- 4. ARI Radim Vrbata stopped
- 5. TOR James van Riemsdyk stopped
- 6. ARI Peter Holland scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:31ARILuke Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:17ARIMichael Stone: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:09TORBen Smith: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:42TORZach Hyman: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:09ARIMartin Hanzal: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:24ARILuke Schenn: Boarding2 min
- P3 2:45TORAuston Matthews: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Holland won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Rieder – Martinook9:53
xG 0.57–0.41 (58%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- McGinn – Holland – Duclair10:41
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Perlini9:44
xG 0.10–0.49 (17%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- White – Dvorak – Crouse7:21
xG 0.10–0.75 (11%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Chychrun10:29
xG 0.75–0.39 (66%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Stone2:51
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Schenn – Ekman-Larsson16:57
xG 0.29–0.82 (26%)attempts 10–28goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Kadri – Brown9:33
xG 0.80–0.12 (87%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Martin – Smith – Soshnikov4:19
xG 0.53–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner13:40
xG 0.58–0.48 (55%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews10:57
xG 0.47–0.53 (47%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Carrick18:37
xG 1.01–0.50 (67%)attempts 23–17goals 0–0
- Rielly – Zaitsev14:42
xG 0.87–1.01 (46%)attempts 20–16goals 0–1
- Polak – Hunwick11:24
xG 0.51–0.77 (40%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).