Thu, Dec 15, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New York Rangers 2, Dallas Stars 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 011 | 09 | 210 | 230 |
| DAL | 06 | 018 | 03 | 027 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 7:08NYRRick NashSHGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 18:56NYRMats ZuccarelloENAssists: Michael Grabner, Kevin Hayes · Backhand, 0.58 xG2–0
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:56NYRRyan McDonagh: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:10DALJason Spezza: Kneeing2 min
- P1 9:19DALCody Eakin: Charging5 min
- P1 9:19DALCody Eakin: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 19:04DALRadek Faksa: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:04NYRNick Holden: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:03NYROscar Lindberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:14NYRChris Kreider: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:54NYRRyan McDonagh: Delaying game2 min
- P3 6:22NYRJesper Fast: Interference2 min
- P3 11:21DALJason Spezza: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Zuccarello9:39
xG 0.55–0.20 (73%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Lindberg – Fast – Vesey7:26
xG 0.46–0.14 (77%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Grabner – Lindberg – Fast2:08
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Grabner – Pirri – Hrivik5:21
xG 0.05–0.15 (24%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh12:32
xG 0.55–0.20 (74%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Klein – Skjei8:10
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi2:03
xG 0.02–0.10 (14%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Ritchie – Faksa9:41
xG 0.48–0.10 (83%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin2:31
xG 0.10–0.05 (65%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin7:32
xG 0.13–0.18 (42%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Hudler – Korpikoski5:09
xG 0.16–0.29 (36%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Johns11:24
xG 0.69–0.38 (65%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Oduya – Benn8:48
xG 0.19–0.48 (28%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell11:43
xG 0.05–0.60 (8%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).