Sat, Dec 17, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Anaheim Ducks 4, Detroit Red Wings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 210 | 110 | 15 | 425 |
| DET | 115 | 36 | 211 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:41ANARickard RakellPPAssists: Sami Vatanen, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 10:17ANAShea TheodorePPAssists: Ryan Kesler, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 13:33DETTomas TatarAssists: Mike Green, Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–1
- P2 5:16ANACam FowlerAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 7:14DETTomas TatarAssists: Xavier Ouellet, Jonathan Ericsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 11:22DETDylan LarkinAssists: Luke Glendening, Riley Sheahan · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–3
- P2 17:52DETXavier OuelletAssists: Thomas Vanek, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 4:51DETTomas TatarGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–5
- P3 6:35ANARickard RakellUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–5
- P3 10:33DETFrans NielsenAssists: Ryan Sproul, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.36 xG4–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:13DETXavier Ouellet: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 3:56ANANick Ritchie: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:32DETJonathan Ericsson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:01ANAJoseph Cramarossa: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:01DETSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:47ANAJosh Manson: Holding2 min
- P3 18:29ANAJakob Silfverberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sheahan won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Rakell13:10
xG 0.60–0.48 (55%)attempts 10–12goals 1–2
- Cramarossa – Shaw – Noesen3:52
xG 0.16–0.06 (71%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Vermette – Ritchie – Kase7:51
xG 0.19–0.22 (47%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg10:49
xG 0.34–0.67 (34%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm14:30
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Fowler4:53
xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Vatanen – Fowler15:02
xG 0.52–0.81 (39%)attempts 9–13goals 0–2
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Vanek – Nyquist10:16
xG 1.15–0.22 (84%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Tatar – Mantha13:13
xG 0.61–0.16 (80%)attempts 6–6goals 2–0
- Ott – Jurco – Athanasiou3:55
xG 0.08–0.04 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Glendening – Larkin12:23
xG 0.46–0.43 (52%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Ouellet16:41
xG 0.97–0.33 (75%)attempts 18–10goals 2–0
- Kronwall – Sproul9:20
xG 0.84–0.25 (77%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Green – DeKeyser19:20
xG 0.76–0.57 (57%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).