Sat, Dec 17, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Chicago Blackhawks 6, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 111 | 214 | 311 | 636 |
| STL | 111 | 39 | 07 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:41STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Joel Edmundson · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 19:34CHIDennis RasmussenAssists: Richard Panik, Marcus Kruger · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–1
- P2 3:12STLKyle BrodziakAssists: Ryan Reaves, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 10:44CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 14:35STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Alexander Steen, David Perron · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 18:59CHIBrian CampbellAssists: Artemi Panarin, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- P2 19:48STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: Joel Edmundson, Jori Lehtera · Slap, 0.01 xG3–4
- P3 1:00CHINiklas HjalmarssonAssists: Artemi Panarin, Marcus Kruger · Slap, 0.24 xG4–4
- P3 15:35CHIVinnie HinostrozaGWGAssists: Brent Seabrook, Marian Hossa · Backhand, 0.08 xG5–4
- P3 19:11CHIArtemi PanarinENAssists: Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.71 xG6–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:09STLDavid Perron: Holding2 min
- P3 7:22STLAlexander Steen: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:46STLRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:46CHIRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:26STLPatrik Berglund: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Kane – Panarin11:23
xG 0.81–0.11 (88%)attempts 16–4goals 2–1
- Panik – Kruger – Rasmussen9:51
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Tootoo – Desjardins – Hinostroza3:15
xG 0.37–0.10 (78%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Hossa – Desjardins – Hartman3:45
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Forsling12:35
xG 0.92–0.16 (85%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson15:46
xG 0.89–0.57 (61%)attempts 16–12goals 2–2
- Campbell – Seabrook16:01
xG 0.59–0.77 (43%)attempts 14–19goals 2–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Brodziak – Reaves6:13
xG 0.42–0.07 (85%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Fabbri9:24
xG 0.48–0.42 (53%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Steen – Berglund – Perron13:49
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz2:27
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Edmundson10:44
xG 0.68–0.09 (89%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Pietrangelo3:07
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Edmundson3:01
xG 0.09–0.10 (48%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).