Sat, Dec 17, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
New York Rangers 2, Nashville Predators 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 012 | 06 | 01 | 2 | 227 |
| NSH | 06 | 110 | 014 | 02 | 0 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:47NYRRick NashAssists: Kevin Hayes, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 9:22NSHMike FisherUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NSH Ryan Johansen stopped
- 2. NYR Jimmy Vesey scored
- 3. NSH Craig Smith stopped
- 4. NYR Mats Zuccarello scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:14NYRMarc Staal: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:13NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:59NYRBrady Skjei: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:50NYRKevin Klein: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:00NSHPetter Granberg: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindberg won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Zuccarello12:13
xG 0.40–0.17 (70%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Grabner – Hrivik – Puempel6:57
xG 0.25–0.12 (68%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Nash – Hayes – Vesey8:55
xG 0.32–0.46 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Lindberg – Fast – Miller10:41
xG 0.24–0.67 (26%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Skjei13:59
xG 0.71–0.59 (55%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Staal – Holden15:49
xG 0.65–0.82 (44%)attempts 18–20goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh16:43
xG 0.20–0.54 (27%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Wilson – Arvidsson6:19
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg9:17
xG 0.51–0.33 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Fisher – Wilson – Smith2:10
xG 0.25–0.08 (76%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Neal – Johansen – Forsberg4:41
xG 0.17–0.06 (74%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Irwin16:03
xG 0.76–0.39 (66%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis20:20
xG 1.00–0.90 (53%)attempts 25–24goals 0–0
- Weber – Irwin2:40
xG 0.03–0.03 (48%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).